Situational handicapping is a great way to find NFL betting value where the advanced models and metrics fall short.
Also known as spot bets, these angles and edges consider the psyche of teams heading into their next matchup, predicting which ones are ripe for a letdown, lookahead or face an uphill climb because of their spot in the schedule.
Here are my best NFL spot bets for Week 7:
Orlando Pirates and AC Leopards de Dolisie shared a 0-0 draw as the CAF Champions League group stage got under way on Saturday.
The pair have been drawn in a difficult group alongside reigning champions Al Ahly and five-time winners Zamalek, but failed to seize the initiative in their opening fixture.
And the Pirates, who won the competition in 1995, will be particularly aggrieved by their inability to make a breakthrough in front of their home fans in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Al Ahly and Zamalek s all-Egyptian Group A clash is scheduled for Wednesday, having been rearranged for marketing reasons .
And control of the group is now up for grabs in that Cairo derby, with Orlando and Leopards level on one point after the first game of the campaign.
Orlando P…
Zenit St Petersburg have sacked their Dutch manager Dick Advocaat, the club announced Monday.
The 2007 Russian champions defeat at home to minnows Tomsk on Sunday was the last straw for the Zenit management, who decided to sack the 61-year-old former Glasgow Rangers coach.
After a series of poor matches in the Russian league the Zenit board of directors decided to sack the club manager, the club s statement said.
Zenit achieved a run of success under Advocaat including the 2007 domestic league title and UEFA Cup win in 2008.
But after Advocaat decided to take over the Belgium national side the club s performance and results have seriously deteriorated. The fans and the club management are not satisfied with Zenit s current place in the table.
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Arsenal have confirmed the sale of Ivory Coast international Gervinho to Italian outfit AS Roma for an undisclosed fee.
The 26-year-old has brought his two-year stay at the Emirates Stadium to an end in order to move to Italy, having made just 12 league starts in a frustrating second season in the Premier League.
Everyone at Arsenal would like to thank Gervinho for his contribution to the club and wish him well for his future career, a statement on the London club s official website read.
Gervinho joined Arsenal from French side Lille in July 2011 for a reported fee of £10.8million.
He went on to score two goals on his full debut a pre-season friendly meeting with FC Koln but would be sent off during his first appearance in the English top flight for hitting Ne…
Zenit St Petersburg have informed FC Porto of their desire to sign Argentine defender Nicolas Otamendi, .
The Russian giants, who face Pacos Ferreira in the Champions League play-offs, are in need of defensive reinforcements after cashing in on Bruno Alves this summer.
According to O Jogo, Zenit have set their sights on the Argentine defender and they have already informed the player s current employers of their interest.
The problem is Atletico Madrid and Napoli are also keen, but it looks as though neither of the two clubs are prepared to meet the player s €30 million release clause.
Zenit clearly have money to spend having sold Bruno Alves and Igor Denisov this summer, but it remains to be seen whether they will be prepared to break the bank for Ota…
Benjamin Pavard says Bayern Munich fans can expect a successful season and should not fear any little crisis that comes the way of the Bundesliga champions.
Niko Kovac s side beat Real Madrid 3-1 in the International Champions Cup on Sunday despite goalkeeper Sven Ulreich s late red card in Houston.
There were encouraging signs of improvement following Bayern s 2-1 loss to Arsenal last Thursday, particularly with the DFL-Supercup showdown with Borussia Dortmund now less than two weeks away.
Bayern s domestic dominance looked under serious threat from Dortmund last term, but a strong second half to the season saw them claim the league title and the DFB-Pokal.
And Pavard, who completed his move from Stuttgart after the end of 2018-19, thinks there is every…
Antoine Griezmann is proud of winning Lionel Messi s praise and says he is desperate to play alongside the Barcelona superstar for the first time.
France forward Griezmann joined Barca from Atletico Madrid earlier this month but is yet to share the pitch with captain Messi, who skipped the club s tour of Asia due to his involvement at the Copa America.
Messi, 32, has spoken highly of his new team-mate in the past, describing him as one of the best in the world in 2018.
Griezmann was being linked to Barca at the time and, having now made the move, is looking forward to making up for lost time.
His words made me feel very happy, Griezmann told Sport. He s the best. When he talks, the whole world listens. He knows this.
That he would say that about…
Motherwell have launched a campaign to attract new investment from “anyone who wants to support a proper community club” – including Hollywood celebrities.
Chairman Jim McMahon recently announced plans for a fundraising initiative as he signalled his intent to step down from his Fir Park role by the end of the season “once a successor has been appointed and certain live projects have been completed”.
The cinch Premiership club – owned by the Well Society fan group – has stepped up its bid to attract new investment by releasing a light-hearted 90-second video in which players and staff members attempt to outline the appeal of the club to potential investors.
The film begins with defender Stephen O’Donnell musing: “Are you the next Hollywood celeb…
Graham Potter will forego his pre-match media duties with Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday as he closes on a move to Chelsea.
The Blues surprisingly parted company with Thomas Tuchel on Wednesday, just a day after a shock 1-0 loss at Dinamo Zagreb in their Champions League opener.
It quickly became apparent Brighton boss Potter was a leading candidate to take over at Stamford Bridge, with talks said to have taken place over a switch.
Former Tottenham and Paris Saint-Germain boss Mauricio Pochettino had also been linked with the position, but Potter now looks like a clear front runner.
As such, local media reported Potter would not be speaking to the press on Thursday prior to Brighton s trip to Bournemouth, another apparent pointer that he will swit…
Barcelona will be out to stretch their unbeaten La Liga run to 17 games when they travel to Rayo Vallecano on Saturday.
Gerardo Martino s men have made an excellent start to the season, picking up 12 points from their first four games while scoring 14 goals.
Reigning champions Barca sit joint top of the table with Atletico Madrid, and make the trip to face another side from the Spanish capital to whom they have not lost since 2002.
The Catalan club won both outings between the two sides in emphatic fashion last season, dishing out a 5-0 thrashing at Rayo in October 2012, before easing to a 3-1 success at the Camp Nou in March.
Their visit to the Estadio del Rayo Vallecano in 2011-12, meanwhile, resulted in a 7-0 success.
Lionel Messi scored four goals in…
Marseille coach Elie Baup has insisted his side will not be daunted by their trip to Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League.
The Ligue 1 outfit currently sit bottom of Group F alongside Dortmund after they fell to a 2-1 defeat to Arsenal in their opening match, while last season s beaten finalists lost by the same scoreline at Napoli.
However, Baup believes his team were unlucky against Arsene Wenger s men and has pledged they will go to Signal Iduna Park looking for all three points on Tuesday.
The problem was that we weren t rewarded with a result (against Arsenal), he said.
We just need to keep playing our game and get the best out of ourselves.
We really want to express our full potential and we won t hold back.
The best apprenticeship i…